Nazmus Sakib

This is yield curve. Bangladesh Treasury Yield Curve, Inflation, Repo Rate Yield Curve Animation with Inflation & Repo Rate Pointers Yield Curve - Month: ▶ Play

This is yield curve. Bangladesh Treasury Yield Curve Month-wise Yield Curve Animation Yield Curve - Month: ▶ Play

Morgan Housel once shared a quote that goes like this, “𝘗𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘣𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴; 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘴.”   The author lives by this philosophy in his books, most recently in ‘Same as Ever’. There are many quotable sentences that explain why some things in the world never change. Hence, the name ‘Same as Ever’.  I had great fun reading this.  Here are few of my takeaways:  Everything that happened in our lives is the final outcome out of numerous possibilities. If any other possible event occurred instead of the ones that occurred, our lives could have taken a completely different path. This thought alone should make us humble and realise we can’t predict the future. What is the biggest risk in life? Answer: the risk that you have never thought of. Instead of predicting what can happen, focus on how you can maximise your resilience against the most extreme events.  Stories are more powerful than statistics. People...

To measure a country's money supply and liquidity, we often use broad money (M2). If we want to understand what drives the money supply in Bangladesh, we can look at the breakdown of the M2 and understand how each driver of the M2 is affected.  Here is a visual representation of the breakdown of M2. Net domestic assets and net foreign assets sum up the broad money.  Source: Bangladesh Bank Broad Money Growth: As of Jun'24, net domestic assets contribute 85.6% to the total broad money, M2. The rest is contributed by net foreign assets. At its peak since June 2001, net foreign assets contributed 26.2% to the total broad money Broad money growth has been growing at one of the slowest paces in recent two decades. See chart below.  Source: Bangladesh Bank Net Domestic Assets: Net domestic asset growth has also slowed as of Jun'24, however, it was on the higher side as of Jun'23 and Jun'22 which were offset by negative growth of net foreign assets.  Source: Bangla...

Risk is not a function of asset quality which sounds counterintuitive as it defies the general belief that assets with higher quality have lower risk and vice versa.  Howard Marks joined the investment management industry in Sep’1969. His organisation and many other firms engaged in nifty 50 investment. They invested in the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in America. The belief was that nothing bad could happen to those companies. But they were priced so high that anyone invested in those fifty best companies in Sep’1969 would lose more than 90.0% of their money in the next five years.  Then Howard Marks left the world of equities in 1978 and got the responsibility to invest in high yield bonds, bonds of companies that were struggling in business and perceived to be of lowest quality. He made money steadily and safely on those lowest quality bonds.  The lessons from this is that asset with the highest quality doesn’t guarantee return if the price paid for it is ...

When investing in a stock or any cash-generating asset, you are betting on the future. Buying a cash-generating asset means you are trading cash for future cash flows. Michael Mauboussin calls it a form of time travel where the buyer travels into the future to see what cash flow they can get from the asset and judge if the price quoted today makes sense. The only problem with this approach is that we don’t have the time machine.  So, most of us are guessing. And the downside with the guesswork is you will be wrong a lot of the time. Even if your guess turns right, you shouldn’t credit yourself with the result. You may have factored some of the catalysts in your guesswork, and you may have missed a few. And those missed few would have altered the result that you expected had it gone the other way around.  There are too many unknowns, and we are working with probabilities of few knowable factors. It is crucial to have the humility to recognise when you're at a disadvantag...